60 years of global urbanisation

New Zealand was originally settled by Polynesians from Eastern Polynesia. Genetic and archaeological evidence suggests that humans emigrated from Taiwan to Melanesia and then travelled east through to the Society Islands ; after a pause of 70 to years, a new wave of exploration led to the discovery and settlement of New Zealand.

60 years of global urbanisation

World Energy Outlook While elements of this narrative remain true, the country is quickly changing course in the direction of a much more services-based economy and a much cleaner energy mix. This new direction will have consequences that are no less significant for China and the world than its earlier period of energy-intensive development.

This is due to the combined effects of structural shifts in the economy, strong energy efficiency policies and demographic changes: Since the economy continues to grow rapidly, at an average rate of 4.

Per-capita energy consumption also grows, by one-quarter through toovertaking that of the European Union by around The rise of electricity and natural gas is closely connected in the industrial and residential sectors, as these energy sources provide a good match for the needs of lighter industrial sectors and for a population increasingly concerned about local air quality.

China also increases the direct use of renewables in end-use sectors, via bioenergy in industry, solar thermal for heating and biofuels for transport.

60 years of global urbanisation

Byelectricity becomes the leading source of final energy consumption in China, overtaking coal in the late s, and oil shortly thereafter. Change in world primary energy demand by fuel Natural gas demand rises to over billion cubic metres bcm bymaking China the second-largest market globally behind the United States and the largest source of global gas demand growth: China is a major force in oil markets, and the gap between rising demand of The rise in the passenger vehicle ownership slows; one in four cars on the road in China are electric by ; and stringent fuel-economy standards limit the oil consumed in the remainder of the fleet.

Oil consumption for passenger vehicles in China is projected to decline post Average solar PV projects in China become cheaper than both new and existing gas-fired power plants around and cheaper than new coal-fired capacity and onshore wind by Annual average investment for power plants and networks in the NPS Bythe cost of generating electricity from new solar PV is also lower than the projected operating costs of existing coal-fired power plants.

This upending of the traditional merit order has huge implications, but also requires major power market reforms and a strengthening of the network to integrate a higher share of variable wind and solar PV output.

The projected role of nuclear power also continues to grow: China overtakes the European Union and the United States by to become the global leader in nuclear-based electricity generation. Transformation of energy supply Coal China remains a towering presence in global coal markets and the restructuring of its coal sector is a critically important element of the global outlook.

A coal investment boom in the early s, combined with the turnaround in demand sincehas left China with significant over-capacity in coal supply. Once over-capacity is reduced, our projections assume that the coal sector in China becomes increasingly market-driven.

The projected gradual reduction in output remains a challenge for an industry that directly employs around 4 million people, although prospects are helped somewhat by a shift in coal demand away from coastal areas and towards inland regions, where domestic coal is more competitive.

In our projections, a continued gradual fall in oil output proves difficult to reverse, although the arrival of new players to the upstream and a focus on enhanced oil recovery helps to slow the pace of decline: CO2 emissions In the case of CO2, only transport sector emissions do not peak beforewith this milestone achieved in the power sector just afterand earlier in buildings and industry.

The peak in national CO2 emissions, although not pronounced, comes against a backdrop of continued strong economic growth, reflects a profound policy effort that touches all parts of the energy sector.

We explore some key elements of that uncertainty with alternative scenarios and multiple case studies. Delaying this transition by ten years and slowing the move away from heavy industrial sectors would keep China on a much more energy- and CO2-intensive pathway.

The outcomes in our main scenario suggest the prospect for China to move ahead even more quickly with its energy transformation.

Although there has been considerable progress, air quality continues to be a major public health hazard. Import dependence, especially for oil, reaches levels that require annual spending of nearly half a trillion dollars on energy imports byposing potential risks to energy security.

In this scenario, an even greater policy push on energy efficiency, allied with greater deployment of clean energy technologies and greater displacement of coal and oil by natural gas, bring significant additional reductions in energy-related emissions and a reduction in import bills.

When China changes, everything changes The path China takes will have a profound impact on global markets, trade and investment flows, technology costs and the achievement of shared global goals.How global growth and infrastructure are driving commodities.

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information. Global urbanization map showing the percentage of urbanization per country in Guangzhou, a city of million people, is one of the 8 adjacent metropolises located in the largest single agglomeration on earth, ringing the Pearl River Delta of China.

10 Global Macro Trends for the Next Five Years

Mumbai is the most populous city in India, and the eighth most populous city in the world, with . Urban growth is increasing the demand for freshwater resources, yet surprisingly the water sources of the world's large cities have never been globally assessed, hampering efforts to assess the distribution and causes of urban water stress.

Despite the uncertainties facing the global economy, certain trends are inevitable. The world will become smaller, more aged, more city-focused, more cautious and more polarised between the rich and poor.

Asia, despite its lower level of urbanization, is home to 53 per cent of the world’s urban population, followed by Europe with 14 per cent and Latin America and the Caribbean with 13 per cent.

profound changes to the size and spatial distribution of the global population. The con-tinuing urbanization and overall growth of the world’s population is projected to add billion people to the urban population by , with nearly 90 per cent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.

World Urbanization Prospects - Population Division - United Nations